Photo by E. Sohn

Sept. 29, 2004

Modeling the SARS Epidemic

The SARS Epidemic: Use of a Computer Model to Predict the Value of Control Measures
Ryan Jonathan Morgan, 14, Vero Beach, Fla.
Intel Achievement Award, Intel International Science and Engineering Fair, 2004

Category: Computers

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) caught the attention of the world last year when the epidemic spread out of China, infecting more than 8,000 people with a mortality rate approaching 15 percent. Questions about how the epidemic can be controlled cannot be answered experimentally, but they might be approximated by a computer simulation of the epidemic.

A computer model of SARS was developed and used to test the hypothesis that the commonly used techniques can lessen the epidemic, but that more drastic control measures, such as contact quarantine and mandatory travel restrictions, are necessary to keep the mortality rate at low levels.

To test this hypothesis, a computer program was written that simulated the spread of the SARS epidemic. The program was verified by comparing the its results to those reported from the Hong Kong outbreak of 2003, with excellent concordance.

This model was then used to examine the effects of the use of surgical masks, early isolation of patients, and voluntary travel restrictions on the course of the epidemic. Each of these modified the spread of the disease and reduced the mortality rate. A combination of these methods proved even more effective than any individual measure alone. Simulations of the more drastic measures of contact quarantine and mandatory travel restrictions demonstrated that the mortality rate can be reduced to normal levels, although the social cost would be great. The development of an effective vaccine could control the epidemic equally well and would be less disruptive to society.

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