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MatheMUSEments
Icing
the Kicker
By Ivars Peterson
Muse, September 2005, p. 27.
There are just a few seconds left in the football
game. Your team is all set to kick a field goal to win. The opposing
team, however, calls a timeout. Its players hope that the extra time
will make your kicker think about his upcoming kick—and then
miss the field goal. The strategy is called "icing the kicker."
But does this time-honored trick really work? Does
making a kicker wait an extra minute or two increase his chances of
missing a crucial field goal?
That's not something you can find out directly. You
can't let a kicker try a field goal right away and then let him try
the same field goal after a delay (or vice versa) and see what happens.
Instead, statisticians have to look at data from a lot of games to
see if they can detect a difference.
A variety of factors might affect whether a field-goal
try is successful. It could depend, for example, on how skilled the
kicker is, the length of the kick, the score when the kick is made,
and the amount of time left in the game. With that in mind, statisticians
Scott Berry and Craig Wood recorded data on all field-goal attempts
during the 2002 and 2003 National Football League seasons (including
playoff games). They even noted whether the turf (grass or artificial)
turf and, for outdoor games, the weather conditions (sun, clouds,
rain, average wind speed, temperature).
Taking all these factors into account, Berry and Wood
found that icing works. During the last 3 minutes of a football game,
a kicker has a somewhat smaller chance of making a field goal if he
has to wait and has time to get nervous.
So, at least one piece of sports lore holds up to
scrutiny. I'm not so sure about the one about double numbers on a
player's jersey bringing good luck, however.
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